Week 4 Picks. A letter to my friends.

Dear fellow fantasy players,

Let’s get a couple things straight. First, we all know I am the smartest one here. Second, I do these picks for me and you’re just along for the ride. Third, sure… I’m 1-2 but if we look back I have a history of starting slow and making the playoffs (2014&2015), so don’t worry about the Lobo’s. Forth, I’m doubling down on some hot takes here.

First hot take, Todd Gurley is in for a hard regress. Why? Well, let’s see… Indy, Washington and SF. Those are the first 3 teams he’s played. Rest of the year, Sea x2, Arizona x2, at Minnesota, at Jacksonville and Houston. There’s going to be regression.

Second hot take, anyone remember Drew Bennett? Well, the Rookie wide receiver had the best 3 game stretch in NFL history for a WR in 2007. 28 receptions, 517 yards and 8 touchdown. By comparison, the best 3 game stretch had by Randy Moss, 403 yards and 5 touchdowns. Terrell Owens, 472 and 7 touchdowns. Wow, this Drew Bennett guy sounds great. Can’t make up 28 receptions. He must have been of went to canton. Nope he was done playing football 3 years later. Here’s the deal. Is Karrem Hunt, Drew Bennett… of course not. But if I say, after two games I’m not sure if he’ll be a top 10 RB at the end of the year, it’s not crazy. Hunt has 3 touchdowns this year of over 50 yards. How many people have done that before? Zero. Let’s look at week 2 against the Eagles, Kareem had 81 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 carries. Sounds great. Except 53 of those yards came on. ONE CARRY. So that 28 yards on 18 carries. Also, Philly was the only game that’s been relatively close near the end of the game and Philly is the best D they’ve played this year. Yea. Philly. Come on. Is Karrem Hunt good? Yes. Is he going to finish better than a top 10 RB this year? Probably. But don’t come at me with this “Mitchell was wrong” crap after 3 games. At least wait a while longer.

Now to the thing I do best, picking meaningless football games

Derek vs Ben

Derek is good? I mean, if Diggs scores 30 points a week, then yes. Derek is good. Well, I won’t be too hard on Derek, I defiantly think there are better days ahead for LAC. Which is good for Rivers and Allen. Mixon is about to become the man in Cinncy. Diggs is a very good receiver, maybe not 30 points good… but good. I think the team is still lacking depth but hey, he lost like 5 players this year. Ben… I’m sorry. But hey, Doug Martin is coming back soon so… YAY! Derek wins.

Mason vs Tim

This is a fun match-up. Tim’s team has been preforming very well… and by Tim’s team I mean Tom Brady. Mason on the other hand has been inching and clawing his way forward by make 3 trades a day. (Up to this point no trades this week… shocker). It’s obvious at this point Mason’s team is way better than the 1-2 record but at some point he has to start winning. I like both teams but I like Tim’s match-ups better. Tim wins.

Update* Mason team is a lot better now. Mason wins.

Jarrod vs Hanna

Hanna is favored to win this game?!?! Take it easy ESPN. This should be another excellent match-up. I still think Hanna’s team has been under preforming but I’m not sure the back half of her starting line-up can hang with Jarrod. I love AJ Green in DFS for you nerds out there. I think Jarrod takes this one.

Caleb vs Logan

Does anyone know if Caleb knows that FSU lost last week? That’d be hilarious. Speaking of surprises, Logan’s team has a better record than mine. Yep. I’m choosing to be proud over embarrassed but it’s about time we gave this team so credit. With Chris Thompson’s emergence, this is a nice line up. Plus I’m big on Captain Kirk moving forward. Caleb’s team is good but as I’m not sold on it being an elite team. Not huge on CJ Anderson (Anyone want to talk about how I was right on that one?) but there is a solid group that win a lot of games but I don’t think they can win a championship. My “Stone Cold Lead Pipe Lock of the Century Upset Special” goes to Logan over Caleb this week.

*Update. Yes, I really thought this highly of Logan’s team before the deal. His team is a lot worse now. Caleb wins.

Gray vs Jake

You know who’s team is starting to look really bad? Gray. Injuries, under performing players and just you know not trading is going to leave this team in a Sarah McLachlan commercial.

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Jake’s team isn’t terrible (I mean he beat me) but it also isn’t great. Might want to do some of that midseason management you are always talking about… Jake wins.

Adam vs Mitchell

Now for the moment Adam has been waiting his whole life for… he gets to play me. Adam’s team in the embodiment of the guy who buys fashion magazines to find out what to wear. Or the guy that spends 45 minutes on his hair… Ok, I’ll say it… His team is the guy from that Shania Twain song…

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You know what I’m talking about. Anyways, Adam’s team is chasing waterfalls.

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Opps I did it again.

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Dang on fire here. Adam’s team is made up of dudes that did well last week. Jordan Howard, I don’t know about that Chicago back field yet. DeMarco Murray. You do know that Derrick Henry got a thigh bruise and missed most of last week’s game, right? He didn’t go away. Sammy Watkins. Need I say more? Travis Kelce. He’s either scoring 20 points or not getting a single catch. Anyways I could go on and on. What I’m saying here is he will either beat me by 30 or get killed… who knows. I’m believing in the hype. Lobo Power. #Awool

Alright. Once again, let me give out a PSA. When making a trade, there are updated season long ranking all over the internet! If you don’t know what you’re doing, consult the rankings please. It will keep you from making a horrible trade. That is all.

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