It’s the most, wonderful timmmeeee of the yeeaarrr, with sleepers a talking, and everyone buzzing this could be my yeeeaaarrrr, it’s the most, wonderful timmmmeeee offfff thheeee yyyeeeeaaarrrrrrr…
Wow, I just made that up on the spot, damn I’m good. Anyways, it’s time for my yearly draft day help article. I write these articles for two reasons… One, because I enjoy writing of course, if I didn’t I wouldn’t do any of this. Two because I think most of you disregard any advice I give BUT there are a couple of you that actually need this advice, so listen up… you know who you are… So, what I am going to do, here’s some thoughts and reflections for each phase of the draft. Early rounds, middle rounds and late rounds.
(NOTE! THIS IS NOT A CRITIQUE OF THE PICK MENTIONED, MORE HINDSIGHT NOTES)
Don’t go chasing waterfalls in the first couple rounds, chase talent
Okay, let me explain what I mean here, let’s take a peek at a pick I have in mind. The 10th overall pick last year, Justin Jackson. Justin Jackson was the third string RB for the Chargers BUT Melvin Gordon was a holdout and Ekler was unproven. When this pick was made my first thought was “wow, little bit of a reach but good pick”, because I could see the situation where Justin Jackson would have a ton of value. We know Mason isn’t one to not research stuff. We know Mason isn’t out here making picks he can’t justify, but there’s a philosophy issue here that I think is bigger than just one bad pick and I know hindsight is 20-20 and Justin Jackson didn’t do anything, but my point isn’t to make fun of a bad pick but rather let you into my thinking heading into this draft… let me explain…
Justin Jackson, 7th round pick from Northwestern. Again, no one was arguing that Justin Jackson was a huge talent, just in a good situation.
Then let’s take a peek at the later rounds.
Deebo Samuel, another second round WR. Deebo, as we all know, was picked out of South Carolina and was a highly talented player on a bad team (or so we thought) in San Francisco.
AJ Brown, another second round WR. AJ Bown, as we all know, was a part of the highly talented Ole Miss duo being drafted that year but was going to another bad team (or so we thought) in Tennessee.
No one and I mean no one would have argued that Justin Jackson was more talented than either of those two. Deebo and AJ Brown were talented rookies in situations that didn’t lead to a clear path to fantasy relevance.
So, what’s my point you ask?
Don’t go chasing waterfalls in the first couple rounds… waterfalls being untalented player who needs (x) and (y) to happen then he could be really good. Give me the guys I know are talented but aren’t in great situations. Here’s an example for this year’s draft…
Preston Williams. Preston Williams was an undrafted WR out of Colorado State and will be the number two WR in Miami after several WR’s from Miami opted out of the NFL season. Preston Williams is in the top 10 on my draft sheet this year. Why you ask? BECAUSE HE SHOULD BE. He has a logical clear path to fantasy relevance this year if a couple things go his way (those being decent QB play and not being usurped in his role).
Preston Williams isn’t great at football. Preston Williams is in a good situation.
Brandon Aiyuk. Justin Jefferson. Aj Dillion. Bryce Love. All guys who I’d rather have over Preston Williams, why? Because they’re better players in worse situations. Instead of looking for the best situations, I am going with the better players this year. I am not chasing veteran waterfalls in the early rounds, I’d rather have talent.
Think in the middle rounds… is this guy someone I’d start at any point in the year?
Another thing I saw a ton of, picking the guy who has waiver wire talent but will have just enough value to stay on your roster, for example from last years draft… DeDe Westbrook, Vance McDonald, Jared Cook, Gerinimo Allison, Mo Sanu, ect. All guys who have value. All guys who can go out and get you 5-10 points a game. All guys who can be found on the waiver wire at some point in the year. All middle-ish round picks.
Now, I understand, sometimes you just need a body, you just need the 5-10 point guys, but those aren’t starters, those aren’t guys with upside you can logically see. Here’s where I want some waterfall guys, here’s where I want a handcuff. Here’s where I want the (x)+(y) guys. Because if I get lucky, “great”, maybe he can be a starter, if he isn’t “no worries” he gets dropped and then I can pick up a long list of 5-10 point guys because they’re always there.
Don’t waste your last couple picks! Shoot your shot at the end.
Last year I got extremely lucky. I got DJ Chark and Darren Waller at the end of the draft. Not because I am smarter than anyone. Not because they weren’t listed on any draft sheet. I got those guys because a quarter of the league gave up and were making wasted picks. There’s more bad picks in the last two rounds of the draft then I even care to mention. Why does that happen every year? A combination of drunkenness and boredom. People check out near the end of the draft because it’s 10pm, you have been drinking for the past 5 hours and you’re ready to party or go home. That combination leads to throwaway picks which leads to me landing great sleepers at the end of the draft. I’m not mad about it, but you should probably be.
In conclusion, have a plan. This isn’t a normal draft, you don’t need to just go down the top 300 list, you need a strategy, you need tiers of players and you need some late round logical dart throws so you don’t end up drafting guys who got cut. You need to do these things becasue there’s value in every round of the draft and if you want to make a run for the jacket, you need to make your plans now.
The MFL 